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North Carolina in the red zone, according to White House report

IMPORTANT NOTE: Raleigh Convergence is no longer publishing, as of April 1, 2022. Read more.

This article about the coronavirus red zone was originally published by the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit newsroom based in Washington, D.C.

A document prepared for the White House Coronavirus Task Force but not publicized suggests more than a dozen states should revert to more stringent protective measures, limiting social gatherings to 10 people or fewer, closing bars and gyms and asking residents to wear masks at all times.

The document, dated July 14 and obtained by the Center for Public Integrity, says 18 states are in the “red zone” for COVID-19 cases, meaning they had more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population last week. Eleven states are in the “red zone” for test positivity, meaning more than 10 percent of diagnostic test results came back positive. 

It includes county-level data and reflects the insistence of the Trump administration that states and counties should take the lead in responding to the coronavirus. The document has been shared within the federal government but does not appear to be posted publicly.

Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, said he thought the information and recommendations were mostly good.

“The fact that it’s not public makes no sense to me,” Jha said Thursday. “Why are we hiding this information from the American people? This should be published and updated every day.”

Dr. Deborah Birx, a leader of the task force, referenced an earlier version of what appears to be the same report — which she said was updated weekly and sent to governors — in a press conference July 8 in which Vice President Mike Pence urged local leaders to open schools in the fall. She said Arizona, California, Florida and Texas were among the states the task force was monitoring carefully and that “a series of other states” were also in the red zone and should consider limiting gatherings.

It’s clear some states are not following the task force’s advice. For instance, the document recommends that Georgia, in the red zone for both cases and test positivity, “mandate statewide wearing of cloth face coverings outside the home.” But Gov. Brian Kemp signed an order Wednesday banning localities from requiring masks.

The 18 states that are included in the red zone for cases in the document are: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.

The 11 states that are in the red zone for test positivity are Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas and Washington.

In May, the World Health Organization recommended that governments make sure test positivity rates were at 5 percent or lower for 14 days before reopening. A COVID-19 tracker from Johns Hopkins University shows that 33 states were above that recommended positivity as of July 16.

“If the test positivity rate is above 10 percent, that means we’re not doing a good job mitigating the outbreak,” said Jessica Malaty Rivera, science communication lead at the COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer organization launched by journalists from The Atlantic. “Ideally we want the test positivity rate to be below 3 percent, because that shows that we’re suppressing COVID-19.” 

The White House and Kemp did not respond to requests for comment Thursday.


Local context: Wake in yellow zone, but enhanced testing, actions recommended

By Raleigh Convergence:

According to the document, North Carolina is one of 18 states in the “red zone,” “indicating more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population last week, and is nearly in the red zone for test positivity, indicating a rate above 10%.”

The urban counties of Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Wake and Durham represent 33.8% of new cases in North Carolina.

Screenshot from the report

Some of the recommendations for the state included are intensified recommendations of already-known issues, such as:

  • Larger efforts to reduce transmission in the Latino community,
  • Continue to promote social distance,
  • Test staff in nursing homes weekly,
  • “Vigorously investigate” outbreaks,
  • Test whole households by pooling specimens.

In high community transmission counties, stricter guidelines than the state requires are recommended. Beyond continuing to keep bars closed, keeping restaurants at 25% capacity.

Wake County is considered in the yellow zone as of the report; recommendations for those metro areas and counties in the yellow zone to “preempt exponential community spread” include much of the existing guidance for social distancing, keeping bars closed and wearing a mask, but also including:

  • Reducing public interactions and activities to 50% the usual amount.
  • Gyms are closed in North Carolina, but this guidance recommends keeping gyms at 25% capacity and keeping bars closed until the percentage positive of tests is less than 3%.

Another graph shows a trend line that indicates a different direction than Mecklenburg or Durham, however:

READ MORE: COVID-19 in Wake County
READ MORE: These ZIP codes in Wake County are growing fastest

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