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Local COVID-19 data analysis (updated weekly)

Updated Jan. 12, 2022| What’s new this week:

Reminder: This resource will be shorter and less in-depth during the editor’s maternity leave, while keeping you informed. Value and want to support this work? Become a member!

Wake County’s COVID-19 case rate more than doubled this week, for the third week in a row, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Data Tracker and North Carolina state health department numbers.

The CDC’s community transmission risk for Wake County remains at high level, with now 2,655 cases per 100,000 people. The 7-day rate is up from 979 cases /100,000 people last week.

The state numbers for Wake County’s 14-day case rate is now at 4,456 cases per 100,000 people. Last week the case rate was 2,476 cases per 100,000 people.

The percentage of tests that are positive in Wake County is now at 25.1%, even as high numbers of people are taking Covid tests. Last week it was 17.9%.

Congregate living facilities, which include nursing homes and assisted living facilities, are seeing more outbreaks. 13 outbreaks were announced in the last week in Wake County.

Digging into the numbers:

The CDC’s 7-day case rate over the past few weeks:

  • Current rate: 2,655 cases per 100,000 people.
  • Last week: 979 cases per 100,000 people.
  • Two weeks ago: 489 cases per 100,000 people.
  • Three weeks ago: 247 cases per 100,000 people.
  • Four weeks ago: 179 cases per 100,000 people.

Wake County was at substantial-level community transmission 9 weeks ago, when the rate dipped briefly to 89 cases per 100,000 people. The previous weeks have been at high community transmission.

The threshold for “high” community transmission is 100 cases/100,000 people or higher.

The CDC level is one to know since local officials have said mask rules could be lifted when the risk level is “moderate” — 10-49.99 cases/100,000 people.

The state measures the rate of confirmed cases differently, as the last 14 days.

The percent of tests that are positive in Wake County is up significantly, now at 25.1%.

The Wake County percentage of tests that are positive was 5.8% only three weeks ago, nearly at the 5% goal, only three weeks ago.

The statewide percentage is higher, at 30.9%, mostly flat from last week.

Vaccination percentages: 75% of all Wake County residents are vaccinated with at least one dose, up 1% from last week. 71% of all Wake County residents are fully vaccinated, flat from last week. [data]

Congregate living outbreaks, childcare and K-12 cluster updates:

This week, there are 27 announced active congregate living outbreaks in Wake County, according to the state’s dashboard.

The total increased by 9 outbreaks since last week, though 13 new outbreaks were announced by the county in the last week and 25 since the most recent update of this report.

New this week:

  • On Wednesday, Jan. 5 (after this post was updated), Wake County announced 12 new outbreaks: Springmoor Life Care Retirement Community, BellaRose Nursing and Rehab, Sunrise of Cary, Cadence Garner, The Covington, Tarabella Northridge, Swiftcreek at the Templeton of Cary, The Oaks at Whitaker Glen-Mayview, Waltonwood Cary Parkway, Sunnybrook Rehabilitation Center, Brighton Gardens of Raleigh and Cary Health and Rehabilitation Center.
  • On Thursday, Wake County announced six outbreaks: Cardinal of North Hills, The Retreat at Cary, Zebulon Rehabilitation Center, Sunrise of Raleigh, Hillside Nursing and Rehab and Capital Nursing and Rehabilitation Center.
  • On Friday, Wake County announced four outbreaks: The Addison of Knightdale, Holly Hill Hospital – Main Campus, Litchford Falls and Spring Arbor of Apex.
  • On Monday, Wake County announced three outbreaks: The Cypress of Raleigh – Rosewood Health Center, Brookdale Cary and Brookdale – MacArthur Park.

The extent of the outbreaks isn’t shared by Wake County Public Health in the press releases.

Additional resources:

There are 9 childcare and K-12 clusters in Wake County on Wednesday’s dashboard in total, two fewer clusters than last week. Four are childcare clusters and 5 are K-12 clusters.

Tuesday’s state report is the most recent full list.

This week, Durham County has 2 childcare clusters and 3 K-12 clusters on the state report, Orange County has 2 K-12 clusters, and Chatham County has no clusters. Comparable-sized Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) has 3 childcare clusters and 2 K-12 clusters.

Raleigh Convergence has analyzed local-level data for Wake County for the last 88 weeks. [become a member to support hyperlocal journalism like this!]

Do you have questions about this ZIP code data or the analysis? Email editor@raleighconvergence.com

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Author: raleighconvergence

Sarah Day Owen Wiskirchen is the editor of Raleigh Convergence.

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