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Local COVID-19 data analysis (updated weekly)

Updated July 29, 2021| What’s new this week:

The rate of confirmed cases in Wake County has increased to 189 cases per 100,000 people from 89/100,000 people last week and 48/100,000 two weeks ago. This rate is a rolling 14-day average.

Hospitalizations is another increasing number. In the region that includes Wake County, Franklin, Harnett, Johnston and Lee counties, 91 people are hospitalized for COVID-19 as of Wednesday, up from 52 last week.

The percent of tests that are positive in Wake County is just at goal level at 4.9%. The goal is 5% or less. This is the 11th week in a row it’s been at goal level. Last week the 14-day rolling average in Wake County was 3.1% and two weeks ago it was 1.9%. The statewide percentage is above goal, 9.3%, up from 6.7% last week.

The median weekly growth for COVID-19 cases in Wake County ZIP codes, compared to their totals, also increased this week. This week it’s 1.3%, up from last week’s 0.58% median growth.

Vaccination percentages: 61% of all Wake County residents are vaccinated with at least one dose, 58% are fully vaccinated, up 1% from last week for each. 47% of North Carolinians are fully vaccinated, 50% received one dose, also an increase of 1% since last week. [data]

There are 5 K-12/childcare clusters in Wake County this week, including two new clusters at elementary schools.

There are 5 congregate living facility outbreaks in Wake County.

The ZIP code that grew fastest this week, comparing this week’s (Wednesday-Wednesday) new confirmed cases to its total is 27597 ZEBULON at 2.72%.

27587 WAKE FOREST is the highest ZIP code for numerical case growth this week, adding +147 cases to a new 6,999 total. It’s the ZIP code with the second-highest total number of cases in Wake County.

Raleigh Convergence has analyzed local-level data for Wake County for the last 64 weeks. [support our work!]

The largest growth in cases this week:

Comparing Wednesday’s confirmed case numbers with July 21’s state numbers, the ZIP codes in Wake County with the 10 highest weekly case growth as a percentage of its total cases are:

  1. 27597 ZEBULON, with with a 2.72% growth this week compared to its previous total number of cases. +80 new cases this week, a total 3,017 confirmed cases reported. 
  2. Tied with 2.15% increases:
    1. 27571 ROLESVILLE, +17 cases, 809 total.
    2. 27587 WAKE FOREST, +147 cases, 6,999 total.
  3. 27523 APEX, with a 2.04% increase, +16 cases, 800 total.
  4. 27526 FUQUAY VARINA, 2.01% increase. +84 cases, 4,269 total.
  5. 27614 RALEIGH, 1.89% increase. +51 cases, 2,751 total.
  6. 27615 RALEIGH, 1.84% increase. +63 cases, 3,495 total.
  7. 27502 APEX, 1.76% increase. +45 cases, 2,607 total.
  8. 27539 APEX, 1.64% increase. +26 cases, 1,610 total.
  9. 27518 CARY, 1.63% increase. +20 cases, 1,247 total.

The median (17th) percentage increase this week is 1.3%, up from last week’s 0.58%. The previous weeks’ median numbers were 0.43% and 0.26%.

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Most cases of COVID-19 in the Raleigh area by ZIP code:

See the 33 ZIP codes in Wake County, organized from most confirmed case counts to fewest. The total lab-confirmed case counts are in light green, deaths are in dark green: (also listed below)

27610 RALEIGH9,17179
27587 WAKE FOREST6,99950
27616 RALEIGH6,01930
27529 GARNER5,28667
27603 RALEIGH5,05337
27604 RALEIGH4,63749
27526 FUQUAY VARINA4,26952
27606 RALEIGH3,65312
27615 RALEIGH3,49549
27545 KNIGHTDALE3,46638
27609 RALEIGH3,30727
27613 RALEIGH3,17112
27612 RALEIGH3,07637
27597 ZEBULON3,01723
27540 HOLLY SPRINGS2,8398
27519 CARY2,7939
27614 RALEIGH2,75122
27502 APEX2,6079
27591 WENDELL2,60128
27513 CARY2,54525
27607 RALEIGH2,19313
27511 CARY2,17927
27560 MORRISVILLE1,94914
27539 APEX1,6106
27617 RALEIGH1,5793
27592 WILLOW SPRING1,5237
27518 CARY1,24718
27608 RALEIGH9813
27601 RALEIGH9677
27571 ROLESVILLE8091
27523 APEX8001
27605 RALEIGH63118
27562 NEW HILL2630

READ MORE: Why are COVID-19 confirmed cases so high in 27610?

Congregate living outbreaks, childcare and K-12 cluster updates:

19 weeks ago, Wake County had 33 active congregate living setting outbreaks, and that number gradually dropped.

This week, there are 5 announced active congregate living outbreaks in Wake County, according the Tuesday’s state report, Wake County Public Health announcements from the last month and state prison data.

The county announced a second outbreak at Wake County Detention Center on July 14, but not the extent of the outbreak. The previous outbreak included 188 confirmed cases and 1 death. In Tuesday’s report, it shared that 2 staff members have confirmed COVID-19 cases. (27610 RALEIGH)

The women’s state prison in Raleigh has two active cases of COVID-19 but with an increased total of 571 (up from 569) total cases. Three deaths are associated with outbreaks at the facility. (27610 RALEIGH)

Tower Nursing + Health Rehabilitation, +2 cases, 13 confirmed cases in total. (27604 RALEIGH)

In the state report on childcare and K-12 clusters on Tuesday and on Wednesday’s dashboard, there are three childcare clusters and two K-12 clusters in Wake County.

New to this week’s report:

  • Turner Creek Elementary School, K-12 setting, 7 children with linked cases.
  • North Forest Pines Elementary School, K-12 setting, 2 staff and 4 children with linked cases.

This week, Durham County has one childcare cluster on the state report, while neither Orange nor Chatham counties have a cluster. Comparable-sized Mecklenburg County has 1 childcare cluster.

Tuesday’s state report is the most recent full list.

About this project: Raleigh Convergence has analyzed confirmed cases count numbers in Wake County ZIP codes and congregate living outbreaks for more than 64 weeks, free for all to read. Consider supporting our work and future reporting projects if you’re able by becoming a member here.

Do you have questions about this ZIP code data or the analysis? Email editor@raleighconvergence.com

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Author: raleighconvergence

Sarah Day Owen Wiskirchen is the editor of Raleigh Convergence.

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