These ZIP codes are growing fastest for confirmed COVID-19 cases this week (updated weekly)

Updated Feb. 26| What’s new this week:

Confirmed COVID-19 case growth continues to slow in Wake County as restrictions begin to lift in the state.

No ZIP codes grew more than 10% from Wednesday-Wednesday for the third week in a row.

The midpoint for COVID-19 case growth for Wake County ZIP codes dropped to 2.3% from last week’s 2.9%. That’s down from 4.1% two weeks ago and 7.1% three weeks ago, according to Raleigh Convergence’s weekly analysis of the state’s ZIP code level data.

The slowed growth follows the trend seen in most parts of the US this week. Axios reports that nationally, new cases are down to pre-Thanksgiving level.

The percent of tests that are positive in Wake County is just above goal, at 5.8%, the 14-day average. A 5% or lower percentage of tests that are positive is the statewide goal. The statewide percentage is at goal, 4.8%.

However, congregate living setting outbreaks in Wake County are still causing new cases and new deaths (scroll for an update).

The ZIP code with the top growth rate of new confirmed cases this week (Wednesday-Wednesday), is 27518 CARY, which grew 6.5%, +61 cases for a total of 999 total confirmed cases in the area. It’s one of only 2 ZIP codes with weekly growth in cases above 5%.

The top ZIP codes for numerical case growth are 27587 WAKE FOREST and 27610 RALEIGH, which both had +125 new cases. These ZIP codes have the highest total number of cases in Wake County.

Rate of cases drops again: For the last 14 days, the Wake County rate of cases per 100,000 people is 322, down from 426/100,000 last week.

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The largest growth in cases this week:

Comparing Wednesday’s confirmed case numbers with Feb. 17’s state numbers, the ZIP codes in Wake County with the 10 highest weekly case growth as a percentage of its total cases are:

  1. 27518 CARY, with a 6.5% week-over-week increase of confirmed COVID-19 cases. +61, 999 total confirmed cases.
  2. 27562 NEW HILL, 5.7% weekly increase. +11, 205 total.
  3. 27513 CARY, 3.5% increase. +68, 2,014 total.
  4. 27607 RALEIGH, 3.3% increase. +58, 1,817 total.
  5. 27502 APEX, 3.1% increase. +62, 2,050 total.
  6. 27539 APEX, 3% increase. +36, 1,241 total.
  7. 27605 RALEIGH, 2.91% increase.+15, 531 total.
  8. 27526 FUQUAY VARINA, 2.87% increase. +89, 3,187 total.
  9. 27603 RALEIGH, 2.7% increase. +107, 4,020 total.
  10. 27511 CARY, 2.6% increase. +45, 1,775 total.

The median (17th) percentage increase this week is 2.3%, dropping from last week’s 2.9%. The previous weeks’ median numbers were 4.1% and 7.1%.

Note: Percentages rounded to the first decimal place unless an adjacent increase is closer.

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Most cases of COVID-19 in the Raleigh area by ZIP code:

See the 33 ZIP codes in Wake County, organized from most confirmed case counts to fewest. The total lab-confirmed case counts are in green, deaths are in orange: (also listed below)

27610 RALEIGH7,32560
27587 WAKE FOREST5,52942
27616 RALEIGH4,71919
27529 GARNER4,14651
27603 RALEIGH4,02014
27604 RALEIGH3,74441
27526 FUQUAY VARINA3,18736
27606 RALEIGH2,8658
27615 RALEIGH2,77939
27609 RALEIGH2,70621
27545 KNIGHTDALE2,68430
27612 RALEIGH2,47930
27613 RALEIGH2,45111
27597 ZEBULON2,26318
27519 CARY2,2116
27614 RALEIGH2,20318
27540 HOLLY SPRINGS2,1745
27502 APEX2,0505
27591 WENDELL2,02720
27513 CARY2,01412
27607 RALEIGH1,8179
27511 CARY1,77517
27560 MORRISVILLE1,5279
27539 APEX1,2416
27617 RALEIGH1,1772
27592 WILLOW SPRING1,1384
27518 CARY9994
27608 RALEIGH7951
27601 RALEIGH7806
27571 ROLESVILLE5870
27523 APEX5850
27605 RALEIGH5316
27562 NEW HILL2050

READ MORE: Why are COVID-19 confirmed cases so high in 27610?

Congregate living outbreaks, childcare and K-12 cluster updates:

There are 49 announced active congregate living outbreaks in Wake County, according the Tuesday’s state report, state prison data and Wake County Public Health announcements.

The congregate living setting increases since the last available report:

  • BellaRose Nursing and Rehab, +25 confirmed cases, +2 deaths, 61 confirmed cases and 4 deaths total reported. (27529 GARNER)
  • Searstone Retirement Community’s Brittany Place location has a second outbreak, Wake County announced Feb. 16. No details on the extent of the outbreak were shared then, but Tuesday’s state report shows 2 new cases. The first outbreak included 2 reported cases. (27513 CARY)
  • Hillcrest Raleigh, +38 cases, +2 deaths, 40 confirmed cases and 2 deaths in total. (27612 RALEIGH)
  • Raleigh Rehabilitation Center, +52 cases, +3 deaths, 100 confirmed cases and 3 deaths in total reported. (27605 RALEIGH)
  • Sunnybrook Rehabilitation Center, +36 cases, +3 deaths, 56 confirmed cases and 3 deaths in total reported in this second outbreak. (27610 RALEIGH)
  • UNC Rex Rehabilitation and Nursing Care Center of Apex, +6 cases, 51 cases and 2 deaths in total reported. (27502 APEX)
  • Universal Health Care-North Raleigh, +7 deaths, 97 confirmed cases and 10 deaths in total reported. (27616 RALEIGH)
  • Cadence Garner, +22 cases, 30 confirmed cases reported total. (27529 GARNER)
  • Oliver House Assisted Living Facility, +9 cases, +7 deaths, 70 confirmed cases and 7 deaths in total. (27591 WENDELL)
  • Phoenix Assisted Care, +9 cases, +5 deaths, 83 confirmed cases and 6 deaths reported in total. (27513 CARY)
  • Spring Arbor of Cary, +22 cases, +1 death, 30 confirmed cases and 1 death in total reported. (27511 CARY)

Glenaire presumably recovered from its second outbreak and wasn’t on Tuesday’s report. The extent of the outbreak was 21 confirmed cases and 1 death. (27511 CARY)

No new outbreaks were announced.

There are now 20 childcare and K-12 clusters as of Thursday’s dashboard, up from 18 last week. 10 are K-12 settings and 10 are childcare settings. Tuesday’s state report is the most recent full list, but no new clusters were included in the report. There is also a report Friday afternoons.

Wake County continues to see higher clusters than other nearby or similarly sized counties. Neighboring Durham County has 2 childcare clusters and no K-12 clusters, Orange County has 2 childcare clusters. Comparable-sized Mecklenburg County has 6 childcare clusters and no K-12 clusters.

About this project: Raleigh Convergence has analyzed confirmed cases count numbers in Wake County ZIP codes and congregate living outbreaks for more than 38 weeks, free for all to read. Consider supporting our work and future reporting projects if you’re able by contributing here.

Do you have questions about this ZIP code data or the analysis? Email editor@raleighconvergence.com

Author: raleighconvergence

Sarah Day Owen Wiskirchen is the editor of Raleigh Convergence.

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