These ZIP codes have the most COVID-19 cases in the Raleigh area (updated)

Updated: Wednesday, May 27.

What’s new: In Wake County, for the first two weeks we tracked the data by ZIP code, ZIP codes with congregate living setting outbreaks were consistently at the top of the list.

Now, only one of the top 3 ZIP codes for cases has reported congregate living setting outbreaks.

The 2nd- and 3rd-most lab-confirmed case count ZIP codes both have more than 100 reported cases and are in Raleigh.

But the data still only shows so much at this point. Testing continues to increase, with new testing locations added and updated guidance in mid-May for more people to get tested.

Previously, people with mild cases were encouraged to self isolate so the limited number of tests would be reserved for more severe cases and frontline healthcare workers.

Now, there are about 30 locations in Wake County alone where residents can get tested.

Still, the ZIP code data doesn’t show the extent of community spread. This data shows cases in which people had access to a test and it was a lab-confirmed positive result. As more testing is done, ZIP code data will show a fuller picture.

READ MORE: Catch up or check in on what to know about COVID-19 in Raleigh

Here’s what we’re seeing this week, from Monday’s data + Tuesday’s congregate living reports:

19 ZIP codes have 31 or more lab-confirmed cases.

The threshold of 31 or more lab-confirmed cases increased more in Monday’s numbers, increasing from 13 last Monday and from 12 on May 10.

New to the list:

  • 27587, Zebulon. 41 cases, 1 death.
  • 27612, Raleigh. 34 cases, 2 deaths.
  • 27526, Fuquay-Varina. 33 cases.
  • 27591, Wendell. 33 cases.
  • 27511, Cary. 32 cases, 2 deaths.
  • 27613, Raleigh. 32 cases.

None have a known congregate living setting outbreak.

While the ZIP code map now shows 25-50 as a threshold, we’re continuing to track 31+ to set benchmarks from the original two darkest shades of blue on the state’s map.

The largest growth week over week in cases, ranked:

Of the ZIP codes that had 31 or more COVD-19 cases as of May 18, the ZIP codes with largest case count growth are:

  1. 27604, Raleigh. +47 cases, 122 total.
  2. 27610, Raleigh. +40 cases, 309 total.
  3. 27616, Raleigh. +25 cases, 120 total.
  4. 27603, Raleigh. +14 cases, 73 total.
  5. 27529, Garner. +14 cases, 57 total.
  6. 27502, Apex. +13 cases, 60 total.
  7. 27587, Wake Forest. +10 cases, 81 total.

Other ZIP codes above 31 cases grew 10 cases or fewer.

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Most cases of COVID-19 in the Raleigh area, ranked by ZIP code:

See the 19 ZIP codes in Wake County ranked by total lab-confirmed case count in green, deaths in orange:

Wake County ZIP codes ranked by total case count, May 25 data.
27610 RALEIGH309 (cases)8 (deaths)
27604 RALEIGH1222
27616 RALEIGH1201
27545 KNIGHTDALE9313
27587 WAKE FOREST814
27603 RALEIGH730
27609 RALEIGH611
27502 APEX600
27529 GARNER570
27606 RALEIGH431
27513 CARY411
27597 ZEBULON411
27519 CARY381
27615 RALEIGH380
27612 RALEIGH342
27526 FUQUAY VARINA330
27591 WENDELL330
27511 CARY322
27613 RALEIGH320

The effect of outbreaks at congregate living facilities:

The number of congregate living setting outbreaks has held steady in Wake County. No new outbreaks have been reported since May 12 and one nursing home, Capital Nursing & Rehabilitation Center, is no longer an active outbreak.

There are 8 total congregate living facility outbreaks in Wake County: 3 nursing homes, 2 residential care facilities, 2 correctional facilities and one in farmworker housing.

Comparably, Durham County has 4 (3 nursing homes, 1 correctional facility) and Mecklenburg County, which includes Charlotte, has 19 (13 nursing homes, 6 residential care facilities.

Six of the 19 ZIP codes with more than 31 cases have at least one known congregate living outbreak.

If you look at the three ZIP codes with more than 100 cases, only one of those ZIP codes has active outbreaks.

ZIP code 27610, in South and East Raleigh and Wake County, continues to have the highest total number of lab-confirmed cases.

There are 309 cases and 8 deaths, according to ZIP code data accessed Monday afternoon.

Congregate living outbreaks have a reported 139 cases, according to Tuesday’s report, including:

  • Sunnybrook Rehabilitation, with 48 COVID-19 cases and 6 deaths (last week, was reported as 8 deaths). 
  • North Carolina Correctional Institution for Women, with 91 known cases.

The analysis: Even after accounting for those outbreaks, the ZIP code includes a higher-than-most number of COVID-19-confirmed cases compared to most of Wake County, more than 100 cases.

ZIP code 27604, which has a large portion north and east of the Beltline but then stretches down along Capital Boulevard to the Mordecai neighborhood, had the 4th-most amount of cases last week, but now has the 2nd-most cases.

There are no known outbreaks in that ZIP code and the total case count is up 47 cases to 122 total lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases. There are 2 COVID-19 deaths reported for that ZIP code.

ZIP code 27616, in Northeast Raleigh, is the 3rd-highest for number of cases, at 120, but it doesn’t have a reported congregate living outbreak.

ZIP code 27545, Knightdale, has the highest number of deaths in Wake County and the 4th-highest confirmed case count. However, the nursing home outbreak at Wellington Rehabilitation continues to effect the otherwise low lab-confirmed cases and deaths.

There are 93 lab-confirmed cases and 13 deaths in 27545, but the Wellington Rehabilitation outbreak includes 77 cases and 12 deaths.

ZIP code 27587, Wake Forest, is 5th-highest for lab-confirmed cases but the Brookdale Wake Forest outbreak only includes 2 cases, according to Tuesday’s report.

ZIP code 27609, Raleigh, is 7th-highest yet the Brookdale North Raleigh outbreak, announced by the county on May 12, is not on the state’s congregate living report. It’s unclear how that outbreak affects the case totals.

ZIP code 27502, in Apex, has 38 cases and 3 deaths associated with the UNC-Rex Rehabilitation Center. There are 60 lab-confirmed cases in that ZIP code according to the state’s Monday report.

ZIP code 27606, Raleigh, includes an outbreak of the coronavirus at Central Prison. 6 inmates have tested positive for COVID-19.

Note: Some ZIP codes with only a small part in Wake County compared to its footprint in another county aren’t included in this analysis, including Clayton.

Do you have questions about this ZIP code data or the analysis? Email raleighconvergence@gmail.com

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