These ZIP codes are growing fastest for confirmed COVID-19 cases this week (updated weekly)

Updated Jan. 22| What’s new this week:

The midpoint for COVID-19 case growth for Wake County ZIP codes is 9% this week, with two ZIP codes above 15% weekly growth, according to Raleigh Convergence’s weekly analysis of the state’s ZIP code level data.

The percent of tests that are positive in Wake County is still high, but decreasing its 14-day average from 10.7% last week to 9% as of Thursday. A 5% or lower percentage of tests that are positive is the statewide goal.

The state percentage is at 10.3%, down from 11.1% and 13.5% the previous two reports.

The two ZIP codes with the top growth rates of new confirmed cases this week (Wednesday-Wednesday), notably higher than others in the county, are 27605 RALEIGH (15.4% growth) and 27601 RALEIGH (15.3% growth). Both are relatively small in total number of cases.

The top ZIP code for numerical case growth is 27610 RALEIGH with +430 new cases to a total of 6,001 confirmed cases.

For the last 14 days, the Wake County rate of cases per 100,000 people is 963, up from 918/100,000 last week.

Nursing home, assisted living facilities hold steady: According to the state report Tuesday, none of the 44 Wake County nursing home or assisted living facilities increased in number of confirmed cases over the last week.

Long-term care facility residents and staff are part of a federal program for COVID-19 vaccines, and vaccinations began in NC in late December 2020. Older adults in these congregate living facilities are at higher risk for death from the virus (read more at NC Health News). (scroll down for more details)

GET UPDATES TO YOUR INBOX: Sign up for our free curated newsletters, arriving Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays!

The largest growth in cases this week:

Comparing Wednesday’s confirmed case numbers with Jan. 13’s state numbers, the ZIP codes in Wake County with higher than the median point for percentage growth of weekly confirmed cases are:

  1. 27605 RALEIGH, with a 15.4% week-over-week increase of confirmed COVID-19 cases. +56 confirmed cases, 420 total confirmed cases.
  2. 27601 RALEIGH, 15.3% weekly increase. +86 new cases, 647 confirmed cases total.
  3. 27540 HOLLY SPRINGS, 12.3% increase. +180, 1,641 total.
  4. 27571 ROLESVILLE, 11.3% increase. +46, 455 total.
  5. 27562 NEW HILL, 11% increase. +13, 131 total.
  6. 27502 APEX, 10.64% increase. +149, 1,549 total.
  7. 27511 CARY, 10.6% increase. +135, 1,408 total.
  8. 27545 KNIGHTDALE, 10.1% increase. +198, 2,163 total.
  9. 27513 CARY, 9.94% increase. +138, 1,527 total.
  10. 27617 RALEIGH, 9.89% increase. +86, 956 total.
  11. 27587 WAKE FOREST, 9.68% increase. +389, 4,408 total.
  12. 27519 CARY, 9.66% increase. +152, 1,725 total.
  13. 27613 RALEIGH, 9.5% increase. +169, 1,948 total.
  14. 27518 CARY, 9.48% increase. +64, 739 total.
  15. 27614 RALEIGH, 9.37% increase. +152, 1,775 total.
  16. 27615 RALEIGH, 9.1% increase. +184, 2,216 total.

The median (17th) percentage increase this week is 9%, down from last week’s 12.5%. The previous weeks’ median numbers were 10.4% and 8.2%.

GET UPDATES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX: Sign up to receive our curated email newsletters with need-to-know info and contextual content.

Most cases of COVID-19 in the Raleigh area by ZIP code:

See the 33 ZIP codes in Wake County, organized from most confirmed case counts to fewest. The total lab-confirmed case counts are in green, deaths are in orange: (also listed below)

27610 RALEIGH6,00153
27587 WAKE FOREST4,40841
27616 RALEIGH3,90710
27529 GARNER3,25741
27604 RALEIGH3,12836
27603 RALEIGH3,1269
27526 FUQUAY VARINA2,40326
27606 RALEIGH2,2667
27615 RALEIGH2,21637
27609 RALEIGH2,17718
27545 KNIGHTDALE2,16328
27612 RALEIGH1,97219
27613 RALEIGH1,9489
27597 ZEBULON1,8689
27614 RALEIGH1,77516
27519 CARY1,7254
27591 WENDELL1,70210
27540 HOLLY SPRINGS1,6413
27502 APEX1,5494
27513 CARY1,5275
27607 RALEIGH1,4366
27511 CARY1,4087
27560 MORRISVILLE1,1627
27539 APEX9916
27617 RALEIGH9562
27592 WILLOW SPRING8993
27518 CARY7391
27601 RALEIGH6474
27608 RALEIGH6191
27523 APEX4600
27571 ROLESVILLE4550
27605 RALEIGH4203
27562 NEW HILL1310

READ MORE: Why are COVID-19 confirmed cases so high in 27610?

Congregate living outbreaks, childcare and K-12 cluster updates:

There are 48 announced active congregate living outbreaks in Wake County, according the Tuesday’s state report, state prison data and Wake County Public Health announcements.

No long-term care facilities in Wake saw an increase in cases week over week, although one new outbreak was announced.

Staff and residents of these facilities had earlier access to COVID-19 vaccines than the general public; a federal program coordinates COVID-19 vaccines, which began in late December 2020.

It’s also a different story in state prisons and local jails. Most notably, WRAL reports a difference between the state report (which hasn’t increased in several weeks) and the reality of the outbreak’s spread.

The congregate living setting increases since the last available report:

  • Hillcrest Raleigh at Crabtree Valley has two confirmed cases in an outbreak announced Jan. 11. The county did not share the extent of the outbreak, but it was on this Tuesday’s report. The county says it’s the first outbreak, in the long-term care area. However, an outbreak with 10 confirmed cases recovered 2 weeks ago, according to the state’s report. (27612 RALEIGH)
  • Chatham Commons’ outbreak announced Jan. 12 by the county without details on number of cases includes 29 confirmed cases. This is the first appearance on the state report. (27511 CARY)
  • Falls River Court Memory Care Community has not increased the outbreak’s case count, but Falls River Village Assisted Living Community, at the same community, is new to Tuesday’s report and includes two confirmed cases.
  • Central Prison, +9 new active cases, bringing the active case total to 68. 126 people have tested positive and 4 have died. (27606 RALEIGH)
  • State women’s prison, +11 active cases. There are now 50 active cases. 460 have confirmed positive and 2 have died. (27610 RALEIGH)
  • Phoenix Assisted Care is experiencing an outbreak, the county announced Thursday. The county does not share the extent of the outbreak. (27513 CARY)

There are now 17 childcare and K-12 clusters as of Thursday’s dashboard. 10 are from childcare settings and 7 are from K-12 schools.

A new cluster in Tuesday’s report includes Cary High School, a K-12 setting, with 2 staff and 3 children (5 total).

Wake County continues to see higher clusters than other nearby or similarly sized counties. Neighboring Durham County has 3 childcare clusters and no K-12 clusters, Orange County has no clusters. Comparable Mecklenburg County has 3 K-12 clusters and no childcare clusters.

About this project: Raleigh Convergence has analyzed confirmed cases count numbers in Wake County ZIP codes and congregate living outbreaks for more than 36 weeks, free for all to read. Consider supporting our work and future reporting projects if you’re able by contributing here.

Do you have questions about this ZIP code data or the analysis? Email editor@raleighconvergence.com

Author: raleighconvergence

Sarah Day Owen Wiskirchen is the editor of Raleigh Convergence.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.