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Local COVID-19 data analysis (updated weekly)

Updated Oct. 14, 2021| What’s new this week:

COVID-19 cases are still high, but numbers are continuing to move in the right direction this week.

The rate of confirmed cases in Wake County has decreased to 325 cases per 100,000 people this week. Last week it was 346/100,000 people.

The percent of tests that are positive in Wake County is at goal level for the third week in a row, 4.3%. It’s a decrease from last week’s 4.7%. The goal is 5% or less. Statewide the percentage still above goal at 5.9%.

From the New York Times‘ data on Thursday, ICU beds are at an average 86% occupancy locally, with the fewest number of beds available at and Duke Health Raleigh. The local ICU occupancy is the same as the state (86%) but higher than national numbers (68%).

The median weekly growth for COVID-19 cases in Wake County ZIP codes, compared to their totals, decreased this week. This week it’s 1.35%, down from last week’s 1.64%.

Vaccination percentages:

  • 82% of adults in Wake County are at least partially vaccinated.
  • 69% of all Wake County residents are vaccinated with at least one dose, an increase of 1%.
  • 65% of all Wake County residents are fully vaccinated.

Statewide, 58% of all North Carolinians received one dose, while 54% of all North Carolinians are fully vaccinated (both flat this week). 65% of adults in NC are fully vaccinated, which didn’t increase. [data]

There are 27 congregate living facility outbreaks in Wake County this week. The total number of outbreaks decreased by 2 total outbreaks.

However, one new outbreak was announced and increases in linked cases and Covid-associated deaths rose in the last week. Scroll for more details.

There are 9 K-12 or childcare clusters in Wake County this week, a decrease of 7 clusters. More clusters are at K-12 schools. Scroll for more details + new clusters.

The ZIP code that grew fastest this week, comparing this week’s (Wednesday-Wednesday) new confirmed cases to its total, is 27539 APEX, which grew 2.2%.

27587 WAKE FOREST is the highest ZIP code for numerical case growth this week, adding +127 cases to a new 9,912 total. It’s the ZIP code with the second-highest total number of cases in Wake County.

Raleigh Convergence has analyzed local-level data for Wake County for the last 75 weeks. [become a member to support hyperlocal journalism like this!]

The largest growth in cases this week:

Comparing Wednesday’s confirmed case numbers with Oct. 6’s state numbers, the ZIP codes in Wake County with the 10 highest weekly case growth as a percentage of its total cases are:

  1. 27539 APEX, with with a 2.20% growth this week compared to its previous total number of cases. +51 new cases this week, a total 2,373 confirmed cases reported. 
  2. 27502 APEX, 2.19% increase. +78 cases, 3,634 total.
  3. 27597 ZEBULON, with a 2.18% increase, +94 cases, 4,409 total.
  4. 27562 NEW HILL, 2.03% increase. +7 cases, 352 total.
  5. 27591 WENDELL, 1.84% increase. +67 cases, 3,716 total.
  6. 27513 CARY, 1.70% increase. +56 cases, 3,353 total.
  7. 27540 HOLLY SPRINGS, 1.68% increase. +69 cases, 4,168 total.
  8. 27519 CARY, 1.58% increase. +58 cases, 3,718 total.
  9. Two ZIP codes tied with 1.50%:
    1. 27617 RALEIGH, +31 cases, 2,096 total.
    2. 27603 RALEIGH, +104 cases, 7,045 total.

The median (17th) percentage increase this week is 1.35%, down from last week’s 1.64%. The previous weeks’ median numbers were 1.90% and 2.47%.

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Most cases of COVID-19 in the Raleigh area by ZIP code:

See the 33 ZIP codes in Wake County, organized from most confirmed case counts to fewest. The total lab-confirmed case counts are in light green, deaths are in dark green: (also listed below)

ZIP code, total number of COVID-19 cases, total number of deaths from COVID-19.

27610 RALEIGH12,25797
27587 WAKE FOREST9,91261
27616 RALEIGH7,98239
27529 GARNER7,42783
27603 RALEIGH7,04547
27526 FUQUAY VARINA6,31668
27604 RALEIGH6,12254
27606 RALEIGH4,75913
27615 RALEIGH4,69351
27545 KNIGHTDALE4,62144
27597 ZEBULON4,40928
27613 RALEIGH4,33115
27609 RALEIGH4,29629
27540 HOLLY SPRINGS4,16813
27612 RALEIGH4,12340
27614 RALEIGH3,78923
27519 CARY3,71811
27591 WENDELL3,71631
27502 APEX3,63412
27513 CARY3,35325
27511 CARY2,81029
27607 RALEIGH2,78913
27560 MORRISVILLE2,60415
27539 APEX2,37310
27592 WILLOW SPRING2,25011
27617 RALEIGH2,0963
27518 CARY1,63719
27601 RALEIGH1,2958
27608 RALEIGH1,2863
27571 ROLESVILLE1,1421
27523 APEX1,1362
27605 RALEIGH79719
27562 NEW HILL3521

READ MORE: Why are COVID-19 confirmed cases so high in 27610?

Congregate living outbreaks, childcare and K-12 cluster updates:

This week, there are 27 announced active congregate living outbreaks in Wake County, according the Tuesday’s state report, Wake County Public Health announcements from the last month and state prison data.

The total number of outbreaks decreased by 2 total outbreaks, though one new outbreak was announced and increases in linked cases and Covid-associated deaths rose in the last week.

The total number of outbreaks is significantly higher compared to 10 weeks ago at nursing homes, long-term care facilities and jails/prisons. Eight weeks ago, there were 18 announced outbreaks. Ten weeks weeks ago, there were 4 known outbreaks.

It’s not where we were 30 weeks ago, when Wake County had 33 active congregate living setting outbreaks. That number gradually dropped to the single digits.

New congregate living outbreaks announced in the last week and facility increases include:

  • Dan E. & Mary Louise Stewart Health Center, +2 cases, 5 cases in total for this outbreak. (27615 RALEIGH)
  • Hillside Nursing Center of Wake Forest, +2 cases, 4 cases in total for this outbreak. (27587 WAKE FOREST)
  • The Laurels of Forest Glenn, +32 cases, 35 cases in total for this outbreak. (27529 GARNER)
  • Tower Nursing + Health Rehabilitation, +1 death, 18 cases and 2 deaths in total associated with this outbreak. (27604 RALEIGH)
  • UNC-Rex Rehabilitation and Nursing Care Center of Raleigh, +2 cases, 4 cases in total for this outbreak. (27607 RALEIGH)
  • Universal Healthcare – North Raleigh, +7 cases, 9 cases in total for this outbreak. (27616 RALEIGH)
  • Brookdale MacArthur Park, +12 cases, +1 death, 14 cases and 1 death in total reported for this outbreak. (27513 CARY) 
  • The outbreak at Brookdale Wake Forest includes 5 confirmed cases, according to Tuesday’s state report. Wake County announced the outbreak Oct. 6 but did not share the extent of the outbreak. (27587 WAKE FOREST)
  • Spring Arbor of Apex is experiencing its first outbreak, the county announced Friday. There are 3 cases associated with the outbreak, according to Tuesday’s state report. (27502 APEX)
  • Strategic Behavioral Health Center, +7 cases, 25 cases in total associated with the outbreak. (27529 GARNER)
  • The outbreak at Waltonwood at Cary Parkway includes 2 cases, according to Tuesday’s state report. Wake County announced the outbreak Oct. 5 but did not share the extent of the outbreak. (27511 CARY)
  • The Covington is experiencing its second outbreak, Wake County announced Wednesday. The county didn’t share the extent of the outbreak and it was not on Tuesday’s state report. (27612 RALEIGH)

There are 9 childcare and K-12 clusters in Wake County on Thursday’s dashboard in total, down 7 from last week. Two are childcare clusters and 7 are K-12 clusters.

A new cluster on Tuesday’s state report: Grace Christian School‘s second cluster, K-12 setting, 5 children.

This week, Durham County has 9 K-12 clusters on the state report, Orange County has 1 childcare cluster and 5 K-12 clusters, and Chatham County has 1 K-12 cluster. Comparable-sized Mecklenburg County has 5 childcare clusters and 15 K-12 clusters.

Tuesday’s state report is the most recent full list.

About this project: Raleigh Convergence has analyzed confirmed cases count numbers in Wake County ZIP codes and congregate living outbreaks for more than 75 weeks, free for all to read. Consider supporting our work and future reporting projects if you’re able by becoming a member here.

Do you have questions about this ZIP code data or the analysis? Email editor@raleighconvergence.com

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Author: raleighconvergence

Sarah Day Owen Wiskirchen is the editor of Raleigh Convergence.

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